DL 1762 · TPA → LGA

departs 6:42 PM ET · arrives 9:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1762 · TPA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?