Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1787
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 1787 · DTW → IAD
departs 3:08 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 9/30 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt
Ceiling 5,000 ft
Visibility 7 mi
Precip 0.16 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 9 mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.