DL 1859 · JFK → SJU

departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 11:53 PM AT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at SJU that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,167 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1859 · JFK → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?