Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 1861 · ATL → SJU
departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 10:29 PM AT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↑
6pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.