Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 1864 · DTW → IAH
departs 12:30 PM ET · arrives 2:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 27%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.21 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.