Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1961
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
DL 1961 · SJU → JFK
departs 5:50 PM AT · arrives 10:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 18%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.