Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2095
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2095 · TPA → JFK
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 11:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.15 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.