Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2172
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2172 · SAN → DTW
departs 2:40 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 9/30 23%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.