DL 2226 · LGA → ORD

departs 2:45 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±11 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2226 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?