Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2306
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
DL 2306 · ATL → DSM
departs 9:15 PM ET · arrives 10:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 28%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Arrivals into DSM at that hour are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
DSM (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.