Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2447
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2447 · SEA → PHX
departs 8:30 PM PT · arrives 11:33 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.