Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 2501 · ATL → MEM
departs 11:00 PM ET · arrives 11:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late
↑
11pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.