DL 2613 · SEA → SAN

departs 3:15 PM PT · arrives 6:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2613 · SEA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?