Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 2627 · ATL → JAX
departs 4:40 PM ET · arrives 5:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 27%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.