Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 2686 · LAX → SAT
departs 6:59 PM PT · arrives 11:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 27%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 557 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 3.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
6pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 540 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.