Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2736
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2736 · AUS → DTW
departs 4:31 PM CT · arrives 8:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 1.00 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.