Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2815 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

DL 2815 · ATL → EYW

departs 5:58 PM ET · arrives 7:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.2 in of rain forecast at EYW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EYW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2815 · ATL → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?