Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2824
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2824 · CVG → MCO
departs 3:58 PM ET · arrives 6:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 9/30 15%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.