Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2986
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 2986 · LAX → SFO
departs 10:00 PM PT · arrives 11:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 25%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.