Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3148
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 3148 · DTW → ROC
departs 9:30 PM ET · arrives 10:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.35 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.