Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 412 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

DL 412 · DTW → ORF

departs 9:40 PM ET · arrives 11:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DTW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.11 in

ORF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 412 · DTW → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?