Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 474 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

DL 474 · SEA → BOS

departs 4:00 PM PT · arrives 12:14 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 474 · SEA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?