Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 489 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

DL 489 · SEA → RDU

departs 3:55 PM PT · arrives 11:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 489 · SEA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?