Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 495 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

DL 495 · ATL → SFO

departs 7:47 PM ET · arrives 9:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±6 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 495 · ATL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?