Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 511 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

DL 511 · MCO → CVG

departs 11:25 AM ET · arrives 1:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from MCO are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DL's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

CVG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 511 · MCO → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?