Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 541 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

DL 541 · SEA → IAD

departs 4:05 PM PT · arrives 12:08 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 541 · SEA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?