Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 798 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

DL 798 · JFK → PHX

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 8:08 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 798 · JFK → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?