Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 856 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

DL 856 · LGA → DFW

departs 9:30 AM ET · arrives 12:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±8 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.58 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 856 · LGA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?