Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 863 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

DL 863 · JFK → SLC

departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 10:08 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±7 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into SLC at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SLC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 863 · JFK → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?