Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 1004 · ATL → PHL
departs 5:05 AM ET · arrives 7:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 9/30 15%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.