F9 1158 · ATL → EWR

departs 7:04 PM ET · arrives 9:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1158 · ATL → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?