Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 1226 · RDU → SJU
departs 8:23 PM ET · arrives 12:07 AM AT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.