Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1233
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
F9 1233 · RDU → MCO
departs 7:52 PM ET · arrives 9:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sat 10/3 36%
Sun 10/4 50%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.