F9 1401 · BNA → DEN

departs 3:04 PM CT · arrives 5:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1401 · BNA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?