Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 1491 · CLE → TPA
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 60%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±3 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.