Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1540
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 1540 · IND → MCO
departs 7:47 PM ET · arrives 10:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.