Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 1541 · PHL → MCO
departs 9:16 PM ET · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 35%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.