Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1612
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 1612 · CMH → MCO
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 11:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 41%
Sun 10/4 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.