F9 1620 · MCO → PIT

departs 11:08 AM ET · arrives 1:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 11am departures from MCO are often late

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.02 in

PIT (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1620 · MCO → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?