Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1728
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 1728 · LAS → MCO
departs 12:27 PM PT · arrives 8:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Wed 9/30 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.