Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 1863 · OKC → DEN
departs 3:44 PM CT · arrives 4:38 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.