Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
F9 2021 · PHL → DTW
departs 6:26 AM ET · arrives 8:17 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 19%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,240 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.