Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2070
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 2070 · SMF → LAS
departs 6:28 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 29%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.