F9 2105 · DEN → PHX

departs 1:16 PM MT · arrives 2:23 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2105 · DEN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?