Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2129
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 2129 · MCO → MEM
departs 5:15 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.