F9 2205 · ORD → FLL

departs 8:05 AM CT · arrives 12:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±6 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.74 in

FLL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2205 · ORD → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?