F9 2263 · LAS → LAX

departs 1:43 PM PT · arrives 3:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2263 · LAS → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?