Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 2421 · DEN → SAN
departs 7:40 AM MT · arrives 9:05 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 26%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.