F9 2486 · SFO → LAS

departs 2:23 PM PT · arrives 4:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2486 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?