Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2816
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 2816 · JAX → PHL
departs 9:53 PM ET · arrives 12:08 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 29%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.